Epidemics expert Jonathan Quick: ‘The worst-case scenario for coronavirus is likely’

The former chair of the Global Health Council talks about the mentality that left the world vulnerable to the Covid-19 epidemic and what can be done to minimise its effects

In 2018 global health expert Jonathan D Quick, of Duke University in North Carolina, published a book titled The End of Epidemics: The Looming Threat to Humanity and How to Stop It. In it he prescribed measures by which the world could protect itself against devastating disease outbreaks of the likes of the 1918 flu, which killed millions and set humanity back decades. He is the former chair of the Global Health Council and a long-term collaborator of the World Health Organization (WHO).

The Covid-19 epidemic looks like it’s edging towards becoming a pandemic – that is, as the WHO defines it, “the worldwide spread of a new disease” – but the WHO hasn’t declared a pandemic yet. What are the best-case and worst-case scenarios?
The best case is that the Chinese conflagration is brought under control, the smaller “flames” we’ve seen flare up in other countries are extinguished, there’s little or no spread to new countries or continents, and the epidemic dies out. The worst case is that the outbreak goes global and the disease eventually becomes endemic, meaning it circulates permanently in the human population.

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