How can coronavirus models get it so wrong?
Analysis depends on data – so predictions for Italy and Spain, where peak has passed, are more reliable than for UK
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The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, based at the University of Washington, is the best organisation in the world at collecting data on diseases and mapping out why we fall ill.
Its Global Burden of Disease study is a massive collaborative effort that is valued and used in every country. But even for such an organisation, predicting what will happen to us all as a result of Covid-19 is a tricky business.
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